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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.