How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.