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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.